Russia has stepped up assaults in Ukraine’s east in what may be the start of a spring offensive, and launched an air assault of record size against Ukraine’s western cities.
Ukraine has responded with strikes against the Ust-Luga and Primorsk oil export terminals in the Baltic Sea, severing as much as 40 percent of Russian oil export revenue – equivalent to 2 million barrels of oil a day – according to reports from the Reuters news agency.
It is the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, Reuters reported.
Ukraine attacked Russian oil-exporting infrastructure on Monday and Tuesday this week.
Ukraine’s General Staff said drones struck an oil tank farm and oil loading pier at the Transneft-Port Primorsk oil terminal in Primorsk, west of St Petersburg. Satellite footage suggested at least five of the 18 tanks were damaged.
The General Staff also said drones had struck the Ust-Luga oil offloading platform in the Baltic Sea on Tuesday night.
Posted footage showed both Primorsk and Ust-Luga in flames.
Ust-Luga exported 32.9 million tonnes of oil products last year, and Primorsk 16.8 million tonnes, reported Reuters.
Russia had enjoyed a boon in the rising price of oil following the United States and Israeli air attacks on Iran since February 28. Brent crude has gone from $70.71 a barrel on February 27 to $108.01 on March 26. Ukraine’s strikes seemed designed to prevent the Kremlin from refilling its war chest.
Ukraine said it also struck the Saratov Oil Refinery on Sunday, and the Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim oil refinery in the Republic of Bashkortostan on Monday.
Russia’s apparent spring offensive
Increased Russian ground assaults came over four days, from March 17-20, said Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii, who said it was an attempt to take advantage of worsening weather conditions.
“The adversary attempted to break through our troops’ defensive lines in several strategic directions. Fierce battles unfolded along the entire line of combat,” he said.
Of 619 assaults over four days, 163 emanated from Pokrovsk, a town of 60,000 people before the war in the eastern Donetsk region, which Russian forces seized last month following a two-year battle.
Russia also tried to push towards Lyman and Kupiansk, in the northeastern Kharkiv region, which it sees as gateways to conquering Donetsk from the north. It has partly infiltrated Kupiansk, but its claims to have seized it late last year were proven false when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy broadcast a message from inside the city.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his desire to seize the “fortress” belt of heavily defended cities in Donetsk – Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Konstiantynivka – and has repeatedly demanded their surrender as a precondition for a ceasefire.
Russia’s “colossal pressure and the deployment of significant reserves” failed to buckle Ukraine’s defensive line, but it did raise Russian casualties, said Syrskii.
“Over four days of intense assault operations, the enemy lost more than 6,090 soldiers killed and wounded. While over the course of a week, the enemy’s total losses amounted to about 8,710 people killed and seriously wounded,” he said.
Ukraine’s southern forces spokesman, Vladyslav Voloshyn, told Interfax news agency that all mobilised personnel in Russian-occupied Crimea were preparing to join the front by April 1.
“Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at a significant cost,” said the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its daily assessment of the Russian offensive operation on March 24.
Russia’s air war
A Russian air assault came overnight on Monday-Tuesday this week, during hours when Russia usually attacks Ukrainian infrastructure and homes. This time, it was then followed by a further wave of attacks during the day on Tuesday.
Combined, the attacks involved 948 drones and 34 missiles, a record number in 24 hours, according to the ISW.
The attacks killed at least five people and wounded more than 40, and would likely have involved more missiles had Ukraine’s military intelligence not intercepted and destroyed two Zircon antiship missiles and their truck mount, as they were being moved into launch position on the night of the attack.
“The scale of today’s attack strongly indicates that Russia has no intention of really ending this war,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Over the weekend, his negotiating team was in Washington for its first round of shuttle diplomacy since the Iran war began, but returned without announcing any results.
Ukraine has sent more than 200 advisers to help Gulf states shoot down Iranian-designed drones, which Russia also uses, and is currently the only country with the proven ability to do so effectively.
During this week, Ukraine has intercepted 91 percent of the 1,968 drones Russia launched, and 25 of the 34 missiles. It has also scaled up its drone expertise in an impressively brief time.
In July 2025, Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine had intelligence that Russia intended to scale up its strike packages to 1,000 drones a day, and signed orders commissioning at least as many interceptor drones.
In January 2026, Zelenskyy praised Defence Minister Denys Shmyal for reaching that target.
Earlier this month, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was “capable of producing at least 2,000 effective and combat-proven interceptors every day” and offered half of them to Gulf states.
Russia has been scaling up, too, over the same period. Last July, it was only able to build 90 Shahed drones a day. In January, Syrskii said its production was averaging just more than 400 a day.
Ukraine strikes deep inside Russia
Ukraine has held a campaign of interdicting Russian logistics and breaking down Russia’s ability to produce fuel and weapons for the front.
A Ukrainian open-source analyst reported Ukrainian strikes 50-250km (30-155 miles) inside Russia had quadrupled to 45 a month during the past year.
On March 20, Ukrainian drones struck a repair plant in Russia’s Novgorod region, damaging a $500m Beriev A-50 early warning and control aircraft, said Ukraine’s General Staff. Russia uses these airborne radar aircraft to identify Ukrainian air defence systems and coordinate Russian fighter jet targeting.
Ukraine shot down two of them in early 2024, leaving Russia with just six, according to then-military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. One more was damaged in last year’s Operation Spiderweb, when Ukrainian drones attacked Russian airfields. The Novgorod strike may have left Russia with just four in the Ukrainian theatre.
